材料价格
Does anybody have an educated opinion on how construction material prices are rising, and if they are anticipated to drop? I heave heard various opinions about what is driving the rise but have not heard what prices are forecasted to be in the coming months and years.
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I have no idea but I’m interested. I sold my house and now living in a camper. I wanted to build but I cannot. I’ve heard demand is up because COVID lockdowns have projects on the rise. I’ve heard we’re not importing from Canada like we did with the prior administration. I’ve heard the fires out west caused issues. I’ve heard goofy things that aren’t worth repeating Google search “lb00” (zeros on the end not o’s) for the lumber futures price. It goes up about 20-30 points a day. I’m bummed! I listened to a dude on YouTube called “economic ninja” who predicts people will refuse to build (like me) and stores will build inventories causing price to go down on summertime. Looking forward to hearing input from others.
有效的市场理论说，商品市场封装了市场中每个人的共识。因此，通过查看期货市场，您可以看到围绕木材价格的共识。我喜欢这个页面：
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/lb00
The standard unit of commodity lumber is 1,000 board feet. Right now it's trading at $1454. For September delivery you'd pay $1182 and for May 2022 deliver you'd pay $979. So the market is saying that people expect costs to come down over the next year, but still stay high by historical standards. One year ago it was at $319.
是的，由于价格很高，我可能会推迟自己的项目，希望它们在明年下降。
Expect the prices to bounce up again when they finally come down. Too many people waiting on the side lines right now will jump right in.
人身人士，我认为价格将在八月/九月下降，但我期望直到2022年才有任何接近正常的东西。
I keep a close eye on this stuff since I bid out project packages for my customers. I work mostly with electrical and steel structures, so I'm most familiar with products involved in those types of projects, but I do try to have an idea on some other things too. I check with my vendors every few days. This is a summary of what I've been hearing:
Copper prices are up A LOT -- about 250% compared with last fall. This is due to a combination of reduced supply (some reduced output issues at several mines, especially the big one in Chile, that are related to COVID issues), and banksters playing the commodities market. Prices have leveled off a bit over the past month or so. My suppliers are warning of possible materials shortages (as in they won't have stock for you to buy) come summer, but no one is sure how severe those shortages may be. The biggest hit items right now seem to be building wire in the 14, 12 and 10 gauge sizes, which unfortunately includes the most common sizes used in residential construction. Prices are not expected to drop until at least this coming winter, and maybe later. No one is certain. I would not expect prices to return to normal levels for at least a year, and we're likely to see some more increases before things start to drop.
PVC原料树脂的全球短缺影响PVC管道和导管的生产。美国是最大的PVC生产国，由于与最近在德克萨斯州及其周边地区最近的风暴和电力问题有关的问题和/或问题，几家化学植物的离线或以减小的能力运行。与今年年初相比，PVC价格可能会上涨两倍。许多PVC项目的供应很短，很难获得。我个人已经看到某些尺寸的PVC导管完全无法使用。我的主要商业供应商是警告短缺（同样，就像“无股票供您购买”），但夏天还没有问题。我一直在看到箱子商店在商业供应房之前被清理干净，这很可能是由于制造商优先考虑交货商店的商店。
就像去年一样，今年夏天预计将再次缺乏治疗的木材。价格上涨了很多（我不会跟踪木材价格太多，所以我在这里无法进行良好的比较）。普通的木材和面板产品也有很多增加。我被告知这是由于自去年与Covid相关的关闭以及库存低的相关关闭以来，磨坊的组合仍未完全回到网上。有人告诉我，经过治疗的木材短缺是由于南部黄松（SYP）短缺，并且进行压力治疗的植物可以治疗更多，但不能让SYP库存进行治疗。
我听说过，但还没有试图确认，已经有一些努力使我们在美国遇到了一种碳交易市场的发展，并且有一个团队一直在向Syp种植者支付不砍伐木材。如果是这种情况，那么我们很可能会继续看到木材价格高昂的价格，尤其是SYP和经过压力处理的木材（通常是带有治疗的SYP），并且可能永远不会看到这些价格恢复到附近的位置。我个人认为，如果这种“碳市场”是正在发生的事情，那么以这种方式实施是一个愚蠢的想法 - 他们将成为一个持续的周期，最好切割和重新种植。正如我所说，我尚未确认这是SYP和经过处理的木材的情况。
Steel is up about double from it's long term average, and suppliers aren't holding prices -- I've been told no one will hold prices for even 24 hours. I don't have a cause here, but I've heard the same from multiple vendors.
Many other parts, some seemingly random, are in short supply. My main generator vendor, for example, is telling me there is a national shortage of radiator hoses of all things, and that is what is holding up their production. I'm seeing 20 week lead times on commercial generators (100kw+), and smaller residential generators are back ordered until this Fall. Many parts are in short supply which can make service work difficult for existing equipment too.
在去年的所有关闭中，由于生产被降低或完全关闭，因此库存已经耗尽。目前的库存非常低，生产还没有完全在线，这是许多短缺的主要原因。我的一位供应商提到，他认为在家工作的40小时工作周更接近20个小时，从而降低了生产率。我的许多供应商还提到很多地方想在很长一段时间内提高价格，现在他们可以不被指责。”。可能也有一些，也可能有一些通货膨胀压力。
有一些供应商A需要供应商B的产品来恢复生产的问题，但是供应商B在从供应商A收到产品的产品（鸡肉和鸡蛋东西）之前无法完全返回在线上。我不知道这是多少，但是至少有一些。
Ford cut a shift of F150 production as a result of a semiconductor shortage due to some plants being offline as a result of the power problems in Texas. I personally have had an issue sourcing a number of electronic components, notably some small-signal relays, and have seen very long lead times (one of my relay orders was supposed to arrive at my vendor April 9 and ship April 12, I recently got an update that they now expect product to arrive May 28. This is an order of just shy of 6,000 units).
在过去的几个月中，日本的两个主要电子组件仓库显然被烧毁，许多零部件制造商还没有完全生产，并且全球运输都被搞砸了（显然，航班数量大大减少了，而且运输也显然也是如此）。经营当地中东市场（某种专业杂货店）的人告诉我，由于降低航班/运输，他很难进口，而托运人不会运送部分容器 - 他们一直在等到一切运输前最大。我从摩尔多瓦和保加利亚认识的供应商那里听到了类似的消息，欧洲其他地方也可能存在问题。我欠了大陆通话的一些人，他们是德国的大型汽车供应商，我必须问他们他们也看到了什么。
总结今天的建筑材料可用性更新:-)
项目计划最近很有趣。我一直在警告所有客户计划更长的交货时间，并比往常更早订购材料，以避免在项目上的短缺和工作中停止工作。如果您现在正在进行一个正在进行的项目，我强烈建议您与供应商保持联系，以确保您可以管理任何意外的短缺或延长的领导时间。
账单
Zephyr wrote: "Steel is up about double from it's long term average, and suppliers aren't holding prices -- I've told no one will hold prices for even 24 hours. I don't have a cause here, but I've heard the same from multiple vendors."
这是由于亚马逊不懈地构造了分销中心。
https://www.colliers.com/en/news/cincinnati/the-amazon-effect-on-verything
“一位国家钢铁生产商报告说，与亚马逊有关的建筑项目的订单有效地占其国家能力的33％，并将交货时间增加到20年的高度。”
账单, what I'm hearing is that stump prices of lumber -- what the landowner gets -- haven't increased at all, that there's no shortage of trees, the problem is all in the supply chain.
Anecdotally it seems a lot of smaller sawmills are ramping up, particularly for non-structural stuff that doesn't need to be stamped.
关于木材价格，我也听过同样的消息。唯一的奇怪的事情是，当我听到有些人被薪水不砍伐木材时。那很奇怪。我与之交谈的大多数人都说，最大的问题是米尔斯离线或还没有恢复满负荷。
有一些木材分级的位置可以定制铣削木材。不过，不知道要做的费用或最低要素 - 运输木材的运费可能会抵消小工厂必须提供的任何节省的成本。
账单
我也听说过。具体而言，USDA有鼓励土地所有者种植诸如Radiata之类的快速增长的物种的计划，而Stump价格现在足够低以触发价格支持，USDA支付种植者不收获。
乐观主义者说，我明智的一面认为市场具有预测性。
>“我明智的一面认为市场具有预测性，乐观主义者说，工厂将团结起来，几个月后，胶合板将再次自由流动。”
这让我想起了一句古老的报价，我不记得是谁说的：“永远不要归因于恶意什么可以用无能为力的充分解释”。我怀疑我们看到的至少一部分是每个人计划中的每一个小故障，并造成麻烦。任何种类的压力情况总是会带来最糟糕的事情（有时甚至是最好的）。
基本上，我怀疑那里有很多搞砸了，没有足够的库存或过多的容量来掩盖它们。疯狂的时代。
账单
谢谢你。这确实是一个很好的新闻综述，而且非常启发。感谢您分享您的经验和专业知识。
>我的一位供应商提到，他认为在家工作的40小时工作周更接近20个小时，从而降低了生产率。
LOL. I think most companies were lucky if they got 10 productive hours a week out of employees in a modern office. 20 seems like found money!
>福特由于某些植物因德克萨斯州的电力问题而离线，由于某些植物离线而导致F150产量的变化。
Semiconductor constraints are definitely real and global. In my day job, we accelerated 2-3 quarters of purchases to account for known and unknown delays across the semiconductor supply chain. Even Apple, who is literally first in line for semiconductor fab capacity, yesterday (2021-04-28) warned that they will be supply constrained due to shortages and expect an upcoming $3 - 4 billion revenue hit because of it.
LOL. I think most companies were lucky if they got 10 productive hours a week out of employees in a modern office. 20 seems like found money!
答案中的最佳词是“现代”。我一点都不同意。
I am in Northern BC and a sheet of 1/2" standard spruce plywood is around $80. It seems completely unsustainable but property values are rising faster than material costs so the boom continues. I am hearing of anything with foamed plastic (ICF, exterior doors etc) are getting hard to find.
Thanks for the thesis Bill! Interesting...
这些视频来自软木市场分析师，并为木材方面的当前价格提供了一些解释。我知道有些人正在搁置他们的项目，但似乎许多人愿意付出任何代价 - 这应该保持高价。
https://www.youtube.com/channel/ucixrwer1mcv1atosfucr_zw/featured
I read recently that a typical new home uses 10,000 board feet of lumber. At $1.40 that's $14,000 worth of lumber, which sounds a little low to me but gives a sense of scale. If you've bought the site, gotten plans approved, cleared the land and dug the foundation, the cost of stopping now is a lot more than the incremental cost of lumber.
利率现在也很低，这有助于人们吸收增加的材料成本。如果可以的话，低利率是立即进行构建的强大动力。这些人的问题将是短缺的问题，而不是成本增加。如果我一直在听到一些关于夏季材料短缺的预测，那么我们将有很多人在等待最后几条管道或最后一部分线等待工作，以获取工作完毕。
账单
I appreciate all of the information provided here.
I bought a lot of lumber in December 2019/January 2020 for my own house. Current prices for dimensional lumber are about 3x what they were in December 2019/January 2020. Current prices for engineered products are 2-3x, depending on product, if you can even get it.
My normal lumberyard is large (spans multiple locations, has multiple yards with direct rail access). They've been completely out of all 3/4" subfloor material with the exception of Fir plywood with no indication of when they will get a restock.
Another very large vendor I've previously bought from told me they couldn't just sell me sheathing; I'd have to buy something else as well. (Also, their prices were absolutely insane.)
It's pretty wild, to say the least.