佛罗里达州的阿波罗海滩（Apollo Beach）是一条衬有数百座房屋的运河，靠近水的边缘。整个社区位于坦帕（Tampa）南部，海拔约3英尺，这意味着随着海平面上升，风暴潮的风险。

Homebuyers along the U.S. coasts can check each property’s flood risk as easily as they check the size of the bedrooms–most coastal real estate listings now包括未来的洪水风险细节考虑到气候变化。例如，在阿波罗海滩（Apollo Beach），在洪水风险量表上，其中许多物业至少有10个。

That knowledge isn’t stopping homebuyers, though.

海滨房屋是在几天之内出售上市的市场，同样的故事正在播放整个南佛罗里达海岸当时scientific报告警告关于地球温暖的沿海洪水风险的上升。

我们是城市地理and美国政治who follow the real estate industry. To understand why people are ignoring a risk that could lead to expensive damage and eventually lower their property value, we talked to hundreds of real estate agents about their clients’ motivations and concerns.

这是我们学到的。

没有什么可以促使买家考虑长期风险

We surveyed 680 licensed Florida Realtors in late 2020. Theirresponses suggestthat prospective homebuyers, by and large, are not taking elevation or flood vulnerability into account when searching for new homes, and the availability of detailed flood risk maps has had little or no impact on them.

Part of the problem may be that mortgage lenders and appraisers aren’t accounting for properties’ vulnerability to sea level rise, so homebuyers aren’t immediately feeling the risk in their pocketbooks. Wealthier buyers who don’t need a mortgagearen’t requiredto purchase flood insurance, and Congress has ahistory of rolling backflood insurance rate increases.

简而言之，没有什么迫使买家考虑长期风险。

同时，研究清楚地表明了风险如何转化为成本。创建洪水风险地图的科学家最近发表的一篇论文发现，佛罗里达州的希尔斯伯勒县，阿波罗海滩和坦帕的所在地很可能会看到70% increase由于气候变化，到2050年每年的洪水损失。这不到30年的抵押贷款。

What real estate agents are hearing

We reasoned when westarted the survey in 2020如果一部分人口避免洪水危险的财产，那么需求就应该下降，价格应该下降。我们的previous survey in 2018涉及佛罗里达沿海房主的，发现共和党人和民主党人都认为，他们未来的房屋价值不会受到海洋上升的影响。

为了测试市场主要忽略洪水风险的理论，我们问房地产经纪人他们看到了什么：他们在多大程度上观察到房屋价格要么在洪水风险的房地产中迅速下跌或不迅速上涨？45％的人报告“一点也不”。在680名特工中，只有11个表明，处于洪水风险的房地产价格“经常”停滞不前。

We also asked if they had seen mortgage lenders declining loan applications or increasing charges for loans in flood-prone areas, in the form of points or mortgage insurance, for example. Sixty percent said, “not at all,” and only 7% said “somewhat frequently,” “very frequently” or “all the time.”

The vast majority of agents, almost 70%, said they expect little impact on the property market in the next five to 10 years.

Here’s some of what they said.

“People are and will still buy in the coastal areas of Florida, and if they are buying, there will be no decrease in value. The largest pool of buyers driving market are retired or soon to be retired people and they have the belief that they will be long gone before there is any impact from climate change. They mainly are buying on emotion and not factoring in the long-term cost of ownership. They are also buying with cash and no mortgage.”

Even lenders currently have no real incentives to decline mortgage applications for properties at risk from future sea level rise. Federal agencies that purchase conforming mortgagesdo not currently requirethe collection of information about flood risk or likely sea level rise. If these requirements were to change, then flood risk would be translated into lending decisions.

“沿海物业的买家在财务上有能力更具风险的风险，并且能够负担更高的保险税率或自给自管。海平面上升目前并不是我们本地市场的头等大事。”

多年来，联邦洪水保险已通过美国税金大量补贴。实际上，国家洪水保险计划欠美国国库about $20 billionfor expenses exceeding the premiums homeowners pay. As of April 1, 2022,all of its new and renewed flood insurance policieswill be subject to anew pricing system termed Risk Rating 2.0designed to take risk into account.

但是程序faces political pressure from members of Congressto ensure rates do not rise too quickly or get too high. Further, buyers who purchase houses for cash, a relatively large part of the market in South Florida, are not subject to flood insurance requirements.

“Wealthy people will still be enamored by the idea of living in front of the sea, but they will probably spend a lot of money making the property more resilient to the effects of sea-level rise. This means that maybe the demand for high end properties will not weaken so much.”

一些代理商建议富裕的房主正在认真对待风险，并计划投资结构性变化such as elevating homes这可以使他们的性质从海平面上升和风暴潮中变得更安全。

市场没有整合长期风险

Because ofrising sea levels and storm risks造成气候变化,我们得出这样的结论:马ny of the houses currently being sold in south Florida will not outlast their 30-year mortgages without damage or expensive adaptations, and that the resale of houses vulnerable to sea level rise is very likely to become越来越困难。

Florida policymakers to date have either ignored the risk or have taken only limited measures to patch weaknesses, sometimes increasing the risks elsewhere. For example, whensea walls被竖立，它们可以改变沙子洗涤的方式，从而增加邻近地区的侵蚀。

Many people believe “the market” will take care of this issue: that homebuyers, recognizing the looming risks, will discount prices on vulnerable properties, eventually reducing their attractiveness and value. But what we heard from Florida real estate agents casts doubt on the assumption that the market has yet integrated this risk.

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Both authors are faculty members at Georgia State University. Risa Palm is professor of urban studies and public health, and Toby Bolsen is an associate professor of political science. This article was originally published atThe Conversation。